Climate change: we're all doomed.

Even the unprecedented melting of the Arctic is not enough to signal to us that things are going wrong. We're all boned because the failings of both the market and our democratic system of government (not that anything else would do better) will be incapable of acting until the consequences are irreversible, because this is the sort of thing where consequences generally lag causes by decades. The Arctic situation, unfortunately, seems to be degrading quickly, quicker than we had expected, and the feedback loops associated with it are the sort of thing that we cannot control once they go past a certain (rapidly approaching perhaps impossible to avoid) point.

I have little hope that we can avert the problem. Per capita American energy usage is 5 times the world's, twice Europe's. Our energy usage is, surprisingly, more carbon intensive than the world's. It is a sad country where Obama's position is a subject of mockery, when a mildly objective consideration of the facts indicates that it is perhaps, on the American spectrum, perhaps the farthest "right" that should be included in political discourse (using common American political positions - to my mind, real conservatives should be Roosevelt-style conservationists).

Do the math, kids. Cut your energy usage now.

The Civil War was about slavery

And that's also one of the things the Alamo was about - though certainly not the only thing.

Anyway, school is going fine, the Greek church is okay, disc golf is spotty, picking up heavy things has suffered - haven't really found a way into the gym much. I'm still pretty inconsistent in my driving - Some of the lessons are sinking in, but I'm definitely taking a couple steps back before taking some steps forward in terms of my playing ability. The round I played before the last was definitely one of the worst I can remember. I even lost a disc. The one I played today was okay - a couple major blunders, a couple good shots, a couple great shots, a few birdies or birdie-able shots. I overshot a 334-ft hole by 30 ft accidentally - I gave it a light touch but it kept going. I didn't sink the put, but I hit 2 of my mulligan putts. My putting is definitely getting a bit better these days.

So, anyway, that's the boring stuff.

Slow is smooth, smooth is fast, fast is far.

I've been playing disc golf a bit since my arrival in $COLLEGETOWN because my golf discs were around, there actually are courses around, and I didn't really have many responsibilities for a few days. In $URBAN_AREA, I would've had to drive an hour to the suburbs to do it, which is Not Fun and generally Not Happening. Even though, in general, it was one of the densest areas in the country for disc golf.

Anyway, it's been about a decade since I last played regularly, and I've been reading a bit over the last weeks about technique. The title is profound if you know what it means, I've been working on figuring it out. I'm not a very good driver. I could hit 300-350' back in the day. But some guy on dgcoursereview.com and discgolfreview.com insists that some simple form adjustments and the above mantra are enough to get most people up to much better distance. So I've been working a little and seeing some dividends. I've been overshooting a few holes with my putter, I put a light touch and a slow run-up today on a drive (with a driver) and overshot a 293' hole (dead on the line, too) by 60-70'. Of course, with some of the drills I'm doing, it's making some of my shots a little inconsistent as I adjust. But I feel I can consistently hit 250' of golf distance with my Aviar and 275' happens regularly - going slow and with a light touch. The course is a bit too small and narrow to try to hit longer, even if you're on the pro tees which, for whatever reason, I'm not.

Anyway, there's an intramural disc golf tournament at $UNIVERSITY in a couple weeks, so, why not? I'll brush up, it'll be good. It'll be on a course where I can see whether I've gotten a good increase in line-drive distance.

PS For whatever reason, I've been wise in my disc purchases. I only really use four discs: Cyclone, Aviar, Roc, sometimes XL. All slow, consistent discs that teach you to play real golf. A lot of people go overboard and buy discs way beyond their skill level. If you're interested in taking up the hobby, pay attention to discgolfreview.com and other sites when they say not to buy lost of shiny fast plastic: they're right. Play a lot with mid-range discs and putters. I can get 275' out of my Aviar just on "slow is smooth". And here's a great video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nED7gcXobEo

We're putting the band back together

I've been inconsistent in the past 18 months about my hobby of picking up heavy things and putting them down, but the last 2 months have been relatively consistent and I'm probably about 50# at most off of my top lifts in all categories for an easy total of 500kg. 200-100-200, plus or minus some change. I'm getting strength back right quick, so maybe, just maybe, I could consider making a 500# squat a goal for the end of the year. I'm going back to grad school, the gym the powerlifters use is right near the stats building, and I won't have much else to do besides stats and squats, so call me maybe? It's too early to call it a goal, though. It's more a vague idea of a possibility.

The only thing I have to say about that is that my bench is embarrassing and I have no prospect of making it reasonable.

Question on money-making

If I had a lot of money, how would I make giant sacks of cash by betting on the following two outcomes?

1. Public pensions (eg, IL state government pensions) are going to explode because of unrealistic assumptions and chronic underfunding even if the unrealistic assumptions were correct.
2. We're going to screw the pooch on global warming. If and when we do act, it will be so late that the price for a ton of carbon will be exorbitant.

There are other similar problems. But, really, who can get (viz) 8% on billions of dollars of investments these days? Nobody, so these state pension funds are going to get crucified. Who can convince any government of the necessity of uncomfortable action now to prevent bad stuff from happening thirty years from now? Nobody, that's why there will be no arctic polar ice at some point in a summer before 2020.

There has to be some way to make money off of these known future failures. It's like having a 2020 Almanac. A very depressing 2020 Almanac.

So, in short, how can I bet against rational long term thinking?

The assault on Ockham's Razor

Yes, even Ockham's Razor is suspect now because some priest suggested its use in the Metropolitan Jonah scandal, saying that it seemed simpler that the story the bishops unanimously agreed on and wrote up in their letter was substantially true than that there is, for instance, a lavender mafia directing the actions of the Synod against Metropolitan Jonah because he dares to speak up about Conservative Morality.

The opponents of its use point out two things:

1. Ockham was a Latin Nominalist, two things which are Anathema to right-believing and God-fearing Orthodox Christians.
2. Ockham's Razor is often used by atheists to "disprove" the existence of God.

There you have it, ladies and gentleman.

For more on Ockham's Razor, see Larry Wasserman.

Edited to add link to post referred to. Also, note that what I said was mildly inaccurate in that the post linked came before the Synod's letter. Read it for yourself if you're interested in the argument.