A couple quick notes

I made a couple quick election simulations looking at polls because of some conversation I had. The first is a simulation if the polls are biased and we want to cherry-pick a Romney victory, the second is just a lazy simulation of the results if they aren't biased. I don't do anything at all to the polls or introduce any macroeconomic variables or presume any sort of covariance structure between the states. This is just a lazy man's confirmation that, unless the polls are systematically biased, Barack Obama is, indeed, ahead. And there's some sloppy source code, too, if you want to try at home. If you don't mind a little irreverence, I call the candidates "Mittens" and "Bronco Bama" throughout because of the adorable video of a little girl saying she was tired of "Bronco Bama".

The market seems to say that, as of 7am on Monday, the odds are at 77%-ish.

Besides that, I'm extremely busy until Wednesday.